THE SENIOR MEN'S CLUB OF NEW CANAAN
Minutes of the Regular Meeting of July 12, 2002
President Bob Witt opened the meeting on an exceptionally beautiful summer morning with 164 members present. Current membership is 500, with 33 on the waiting list.
Announcements: Dick DePatie reported David Brown had surgery and former member Karl Frishman passed away.
Activities: Tennis and bridge will happen as usual. Racquetball had only two today but had six on Wednesday. On July 15th, golf will be at Ridgefield CC, and on August 14, at Whitney Farms. On July 24, Trailblazers will change to a seated position and go canoeing at Falls Village. On July 26, 4F's next luncheon will be at the Stamford Yacht Club.
Couth: July 27 is the date for the CT Jazz Festival. Jim D'Acosta and John Berg provided extensive information and a video of a past festival. August 15, will take us to Sagamore Hills and on the Port Jefferson ferry. On September 19th, those with great expectations will go to Belmont. On October 9th, we will see Oklahoma, and on Nov. 9th, the Army-Air Force football game. In December we will travel to RI to see the Christmas decorated Newport mansions.
Resident Humorist: Acting humorist Joe Sweet gave us an insight into the cunning behavior of Clergy, Doctor and Lawyer, when having $25000 belonging to a dead man.
SPEAKER
Vice President Jack Murray introduced guest speaker Ralph Acampora, Director of Technical Research for Prudential Securities. Ralph began by defining "elfs" as a term used to describe technical analysts. Although he is a technical analyst, he wished he was an economist. He went on to mention the three aspects of his discipline: price, volume, and psychology. With regard to today's market, the psychological aspect is having a major negative influence. Ralph questioned well known indices such as the DOW, S&P 500, etc., stating that they did not accurately reflect the market. He also stated these indices were in disagreement as to when the bear market began, which according to Ralph is as early as 3/98, and as late as 5/01. Ralph then went on to define the true beginning of the current bear market as Sept. 21, 2001. He derived this from technical analysis and the breadth of the equity market used in his analysis. He then stated there is a "stealth bull market" since a majority of stocks over the last two years have been flat or up. He spoke of a "market bubble" which he defined as the
"new economy" peaking, and the "old economy" making a new low in February 2000. Ralph questioned the market being overvalued and stated that the 1100 largest stocks collectively had a PE ratio of less than 20. He said today's market is reminiscent of the Nifty SO's, where the new Nifty 50 are the recent glamour growth stocks. He provided the following reasons for optimism: 1) the Commodity Resource Board index points to an economic recovery, 2) the major market bottoms every four years, the last bottom being in 1998, 3) years three and four of a Presidents term are up-market years. He closed by providing some stock tips which included P&G, Rubbermaid, Mattel and Staples. .
Stan Stanziale - Asst. Secretary